Cloud on horizon – in a good way
December 23, 2011
MICROSOFT and Nokia are once again in the ascendancy, Apple is on the cusp of more great things and BlackBerry is on the wane. That, in a nutshell, is what will be the state of the tech world in 2012.
But the tech stars and black holes will be obscured by the cloud which will cover just about everything next year.
The building blocks that will turn cloud computing into a reality for South Africans in 2012 are just about in place.
Cheaper, faster ubiquitous bandwidth, a willingness by businesses and consumers to trust cloud-based systems and a growing number of devices that use the cloud to provide services mean its time has come…
Cloud computing is the model whereby software and data is housed on a remote computer and accessed as it’s needed via just about any device with an internet connection. However, because you need to be connected via broadband to cloud services, cost and speed are significant – even determining – factors for its effective use.
New generation long-term evolution (LTE) cellular networks are likely to be switched on in late 2012 and will effectively double the speed of mobile broadband connections in areas where they are available – typically large cities at first.
South Africa’s network operators say they’re ready to begin making these 4G networks available once spectrum is opened up to them, making the mobile cloud more compelling.
David Miller, the CEO of Incredible Connection, says the cloud will force traditional software retailers to rethink their business models.
"As consumers get more comfortable with the cloud, so they’ll start buying – and having their software delivered – online. Retailers will have to get creative and use their buying power and online infrastructure to deliver and support cloud-based services."
Microsoft has already taken a page out of Google’s book (the latter has a suite of productivity tools called Google Docs, which are free) and now offers its popular Office suite as a web-based cloud service, Office 365.
Tech analyst Arthur Goldstuck, MD of Worldwide Worx, says 2012 will mark the end of the beginning of South Africa’s fixed-line broadband revolution: "New private sector national and urban fibre optic networks being deployed will force Telkom to be open and more competitive but it remains 10 times bigger than its nearest rival.
"That said, the availability of high-speed connectivity options for consumers means the infrastructure required for effective cloud services makes it a more viable option."
The cloud is having a significant effect on hardware sales, says Miller, and 2012 will see a huge uptake of ultrabook computers.
"These slim and light but powerful mobile computers will start replacing notebooks as mobility tools for execs."
Ultrabooks rely heavily on wireless broadband and the cloud, which means designers have been able to incorporate smaller, lighter and less power-hungry solid-state storage drives into machines.
More power-efficient mobile processors from the likes of Intel mean that an ultrabook such as Sony’s featherweight Vaio version weighs in at just 1.16kg. The caveat? An eye-watering R30000 price tag.
Miller says Apple and Samsung will remain the dominant tablet brands in 2012 and Goldstuck adds that, before mid-year, their total number will pass the 250000 mark in South Africa, and "there will follow a rapid doubling of that number".
Keep an eye out, too, for Amazon’s Kindle Fire tablet in 2012 – at under half the price of an iPad, it’s likely to gain significant traction.
Another large blip on the 2012 tech radar is the return of Microsoft to the OS wars – next year it releases a significant new version of its operating system, Windows 8.
While much media attention in 2011 has been focused on the spectacular success of Apple and the plunge in the fortunes of BlackBerry – the smartphone pioneer shed the bulk of its share price following a year of disasters – Microsoft is set to make its play in the smartphone market too, in partnership with Nokia.