Cloud Computing Forecast Not Quite So Certain, Recent Research Shows
June 16, 2012
The cloud is inevitable, or at least that’s what you hear if you are a midsize business looking to beef up current IT options. Providers across the globe will tell you that the cloud computing forecast not only calls for a massive, global overcast but also private pockets of deepening rain; if you’re still working on a mainframe, they warn, you’ll be left behind. But new research from analyst firm Forrester says that it’s commoditization, not cloud computing that will dominate the IT landscape, and companies need to be prepared for such a shift.
Ring the Bell
There are a number of cloud computing IPOs hoping to make a strong impact on the market in the near future, according to a Jun 8, 2012, article at the Financial Post. Companies like analysis provider Tableau Software, virtualization developer AppSense, and security software maker Rally Software all hope that the current upward trend of cloud computing will help shield their fledgling IPOs from the kind of trouble that has hounded Mark Zuckerberg and his social media site…
In addition to a promising initial stock outlook, many smaller companies are encouraged by regulations that allow businesses with less than $1 billion in revenue to file IPO registrations privately, resolve any regulatory issues without public scrutiny and pull their offering if they don’t feel it will perform, but never receive the kind of stigma attached to a withdrawal. The prevailing attitude in the industry seems to be that since new cloud computing and virtualized options depend on businesses, not on consumers like the Facebook IPO, a much better initial showing and subsequent performance will result. It is confidence in the cloud, in both its growing ubiquity and efficacy, that’s driving such bold moves forward, but is it really the future?
Consumers, Not Cloud
According to a recent Computerworld UK article, not entirely. Instead, it is commoditization that will eventually rule the roost rather than the cloud, putting somewhat of a damper on recent cloud computing forecasts. Instead of the cloud, new survey data indicates, it will be modernisation and commoditization that will drive a hybrid cloud/mainframe environment.
James Staten of Forrester Research says that "not everything will move to the cloud as there are many business processes, data sets and workflows that require specific hardware or proprietary solutions that can’t take advantage of cloud economics. For this reason we’ll likely still have mainframes 20 years from now." In other words–and despite the hype–there are some things that just can’t move to the cloud easily, and perhaps shouldn’t go. Long-term, Forrester sees companies with a hybrid portfolio of cloud and non-cloud workloads that together optimize agility and resource management.
For IT admins, the new cloud computing forecast likely doesn’t come as a surprise; many technologies have heralded themselves as complete game-changers but instead only added to the market’s diversity. For midsize IT pros, it’s not about converting everything to the cloud in a mad rush or jumping on the bandwagon of the latest cloud IPO. Instead, the cloud should be viewed as a way to augment current systems and devise a balance between necessary internal operations and what can safely be moved off-site. The future is coming, and will include non-local, public options but forecasts now call for just partly cloudy skies.